Your model reads what happened. The origin holds what was already set.
For insurers, reinsurers and structurers who price risk on a history of losses, and sense that the history is no longer enough.
Every rate rests on a record of effects.
A rate, a treaty and a trigger are each built from a history of losses. That history is a record of what arrived, and it can only tell you about the cause once the cause has already done its work.
When the soil, the water or the forest behind a risk changes its condition, the record does not notice. It notices at the claim.
Between the index and the ground.
A trigger measures something near the loss: rainfall, wind, a vegetation signal. The ground beneath it holds its own condition, set long before and carried into every season.
Where the two disagree, you pay a loss the trigger did not describe, or you decline to pay one it did. Either way the client relationship takes the strain, and the next renewal is priced on the argument.
The gap is not in the model. It is in what the model was never told.
A declaration, not a forecast.
Origin Risk declares the condition of a living system on a stated date: its age in the sense that matters, the state it is in, and the time it has left in that state.
It does not predict the weather. It states the ground the weather will land on, so that the same event can be read against the same condition every time.
Write the sound part. Know the rest.
A polygon is rarely one thing. Read at a granular level, the sound part can be written and priced on its own terms, and the part that is failing can be seen for what it is, rather than the whole being withdrawn.
Premium you are currently walking away from becomes premium you can collect. Triggers can be set against the condition they are meant to protect. Losses stop arriving as surprises.
The method, in outline.
- Identify the living systemWhat it is, where it sits and how far it extends, drawn to the scale at which it can be read.
- Read its condition against the StandardThe same questions, asked the same way, of every system, so that two declarations can be compared.
- Declare its state on a stated dateA dated statement of condition and time remaining. Not a prediction of what will happen to it.
- Declare again as the condition movesEach declaration can then be held against what happened next.
The method is disclosed in outline. The weightings and the component model behind each declaration are not published.
The first standard of its kind.
The Biological Time Classification Standard was authored by Matthew Ross. It is the first published standard for declaring the condition of a living system, and the language of this page comes from it.
The classifications themselves are not published openly. They are available to registered readers and to those who commission a declaration.
Begin with the polygons you walked away from.
We take a small number of enquiries and ask a few questions first. Write to us with:
- Your organisation and your role
- The portfolio, peril or geography you have in view
- What you would need to be true to write it
info@originrisk.com
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